In moments of crisis, my friend Engº Eliezer Baptista (Former Minister and Former President of CVRD – Companhia Vale do Rio Doce) used to say that our Brazil is the first country to go into decline without ever reaching its apogee. In the last five decades we have had seven currencies, eleven criteria for monetary corrections and four vice presidents assuming the presidency for a long period.
Regrettably, in the last twenty years we have registered a mediocre growth rate, of just over 2%, when exactly in the previous twenty years we have achieved growth above 7%. The “per capita” consumption of energy in the last twenty years has remained stable. Thus, we did not have a significant improvement in the quality of life of Brazilians.
Why are we skating while several emerging countries are achieving enviable economic and social success?
I had the privilege of working with two Presidents of the Republic, General Ernesto Geisel and General João Figueiredo. Of both, I have fond memories and I learned from them to reason numerically when discussing energy policy. The two leaders only discussed energy policy emphasizing numbers.
For a continental country like ours, with three percent of the world's population, the two oil crises (1973/74 and 1979/80) profoundly affected our economy, because domestic production of oil and natural gas only met fifteen percent. cent of our needs.
I was invited by both, on different occasions, to take over the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, but a few days before taking office, from the first I heard more or less the following words: “With the oil crisis, I only have you to take over the Ministry of Mines. and Energy”; and from the second I heard practically the same words, forcing me to assume the Presidency of Petrobras.
Today, as I look back on those episodes, I am convinced that the changes were caused by countless hours of conversations based on the country's energy sector figures. As I had worked for five years with President Geisel at Petrobras before becoming his minister, always based on numbers, I managed to get him to authorize the opening of oil exploration to national and international private initiative, through risk contracts, the launch of the national alcohol plan, the increase in thermal generation based on national and nuclear coal, the construction of new refineries, new petrochemical complexes, fertilizers, etc., which boosted the national economy.
President Figueiredo was very strong in numbers and, like President Geisel, he always questioned me based on numbers. From both of them I received the most unrestricted support to fulfill the two missions and, if today Brazil is almost self-sufficient in oil, we owe a large part to the two leaders who, through me, made it possible to value the competent professionals from Petrobras, Eletrobrás, Nuclebrás and others.
If the current oil crisis had hit Brazil at the same level of external dependence that we had in the two previous crises, the additional expenditure of foreign exchange to supply the national energy market would be in the order of forty billion dollars a year. The consequence would be disastrous.
If the same criterion of numerical reasoning prevailed to delineate the national energy policy in the last twenty years, we would not have blackouts as we have had, we would not have abandoned national coal and nuclear power plants under construction, we would not have quickly built several natural gas thermal plants, we would not be exporting domestic crude oil and importing refined products with unjustifiable expenditure on precious foreign exchange, etc.
Without the return of numerical reasoning, there is no way to have a good energy policy and, without it, it is not possible to grow again at the same pace as other emerging countries.
In recent years our leaders have not had much numerical reasoning and, therefore, I fear that my friend Eliezer is right in his ironic diagnosis of our country.
Shigeaki Ueki was president of Petrobras during João Figueiredo's government and was minister of mines and energy in the Geisel government.